A simulation-based decision support tool for informing the management of patients in retinal services

Retinal vascular diseases are a leading cause of blindness in the Western world. Advancement in the clinical management of these diseases has been fast-paced, with new treatments becoming available. Eye care services account for nearly one in ten hospital outpatient appointments in England. This paper discusses the development of a decision support toolkit (DST) that facilitates the improvement of retinal services by identifying cost savings and efficiencies within the pathway of care. The paper describes the development of the DST with the help of NHS and commercial experts in the retinal pathway. The DST enables users to model their own services by working with the DST interface allowing them to specify local services. Users can input local estimates or data of service demands and capacities thus creating a baseline discrete event simulation model. Users can then compare the baseline with potential changes in the patient pathway in the safety of a virtual environment. The tool enables key decision makers to estimate the likely impact of changes, such as increased use of new treatment vs. existing treatment regime. By making such changes the impact on activity, cost, staffing levels, skill-mix and utilisation of resources can be easily understood. Such previously unobtainable quantitative information can be used to support business cases for change in retinal servicesFinal Accepted Versio

Enabling better management of patients: discrete event simulation combined with the STAR approach

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Journal of the Operational Research Society, on 1 May 2017, available online at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1057/s41274-016-0029-y.Squeezed budgets and funding cuts are expected to become a feature of the healthcare landscape in the future, forcing decision makers such as service managers, clinicians and commissioners to find effective ways of allocating scarce resources. This paper discusses the development of a decision support toolkit (DST) that facilitates the improvement of services by identifying cost savings and efficiencies within the pathway of care. With the help of National Health Service and commercial experts, we developed a discrete event simulation model for Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) patients and adapted the socio technical allocation of resources (STAR) approach to answer crucial questions like: what sort of interventions should we spend our money on? Where will we get the most value for our investment? How will we explain the choices we have made? The DST enables users to model their own services by working with the DST interface allowing users to specify local DVT services. They can input local estimates, or data of service demands and capacities, thus creating a baseline discrete event simulation model. The user can then compare the baseline with potential changes in the patient pathway in the safety of a virtual environment. By making such changes key decision makers can easily understand the impact on activity, cost, staffing levels, skill-mix, utilisation of resources and, more importantly, it allows them to find the interventions that have the highest benefit to patients and provide best value for money.Peer reviewe

Demand and Capacity Modelling for Acute Services using Discrete Event Simulation

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Health Systems following peer review. The final publication [Demir, E., Gunal, M & Southern, D., Health Syst (2016), first published online March 11, 2016, is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1057/hs.2016.1 © 2016 Operational Research Society Ltd 2016Increasing demand for services in England with limited healthcare budget has put hospitals under immense pressure. Given that almost all National Health Service (NHS) hospitals have severe capacity constraints (beds and staff shortages) a decision support tool (DST) is developed for the management of a major NHS Trust in England. Acute activities are forecasted over a 5 year period broken down by age groups for 10 specialty areas. Our statistical models have produced forecast accuracies in the region of 90%. We then developed a discrete event simulation model capturing individual patient pathways until discharge (in A&E, inpatient and outpatients), where arrivals are based on the forecasted activity outputting key performance metrics over a period of time, e.g., future activity, bed occupancy rates, required bed capacity, theatre utilisations for electives and non-electives, clinic utilisations, and diagnostic/treatment procedures. The DST allows Trusts to compare key performance metrics for 1,000’s of different scenarios against their existing service (baseline). The power of DST is that hospital decision makers can make better decisions using the simulation model with plausible assumptions which are supported by statistically validated data.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Colorado River Basin Study Comments--Southern Nevada Water Authority

Comments on the Colorado River Basin Study prepared by the the Western Water Policy Review Advisory Commission

The impact of enhanced projector display on the responses of people to a violent scenario in immersive virtual reality

This paper describes the impact of display resolution and luminance on the responses of participants in a behavioral study that used a projection-based Immersive Virtual Reality System. The scenario was a virtual bar where participants witnessed a violent attack of one person on another due to an argument about support for a soccer club. The major response variable was the number of interventions made by participants. The study was between-groups with 10 participants in two groups pre-upgrade and post-upgrade, both in the same 4-screen Cave-like system. However, the post-upgrade group experienced the scenario with projectors that had a significantly higher level of resolution and luminance than those experienced by the pre-upgrade group. The results show that, other things being equal, the number of both verbal and physical interventions was greater amongst those in the post-upgrade group compared to the pre-upgrade group

A simulation tool for better management of retinal services

Background: Advances in the management of retinal diseases have been fast-paced as new treatments become available, resulting in increasing numbers of patients receiving treatment in hospital retinal services. These patients require frequent and long-term follow-up and repeated treatments, resulting in increased pressure on clinical workloads. Due to limited clinic capacity, many National Health Service (NHS) clinics are failing to maintain recommended follow-up intervals for patients receiving care. As such, clear and robust, long term retinal service models are required to assess and respond to the needs of local populations, both currently and in the future. Methods: A discrete event simulation (DES) tool was developed to facilitate the improvement of retinal services by identifying efficiencies and cost savings within the pathway of care. For a mid-size hospital in England serving a population of over 500,000, we used 36 months of patient level data in conjunction with statistical forecasting and simulation to predict the impact of making changes within the service. Results: A simulation of increased demand and a potential solution of the 'Treat and Extend' (T&E) regimen which is reported to result in better outcomes, in combination with virtual clinics which improve quality, effectiveness and productivity and thus increase capacity is presented. Without the virtual clinic, where T&E is implemented along with the current service, we notice a sharp increase in the number of follow-ups, number of Anti-VEGF injections, and utilisation of resources. In the case of combining T&E with virtual clinics, there is a negligible (almost 0%) impact on utilisation of resources. Conclusions: Expansion of services to accommodate increasing number of patients seen and treated in retinal services is feasible with service re-organisation. It is inevitable that some form of initial investment is required to implement service expansion through T&E and virtual clinics. However, modelling with DES indicates that such investment is outweighed by cost reductions in the long term as more patients receive optimal treatment and retain vision with better outcomes. The model also shows that the service will experience an average of 10% increase in surplus capacity.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The Genomics of Streptococcus Pneumoniae Carriage Isolates from UK Children and Their Household Contacts, Pre-PCV7 to Post-PCV13.

We used whole genome sequencing (WGS) analysis to investigate the population structure of 877 Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates from five carriage studies from 2002 (N = 346), 2010 (N = 127), 2013 (N = 153), 2016 (N = 187) and 2018 (N = 64) in UK households which covers the period pre-PCV7 to post-PCV13 implementation. The genomic lineages seen in the population were determined using multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) and PopPUNK (Population Partitioning Using Nucleotide K-mers) which was used for local and global comparisons. A Roary core genome alignment of all the carriage genomes was used to investigate phylogenetic relationships between the lineages. The results showed an influx of previously undetected sequence types after vaccination associated with non-vaccine serotypes. A small number of lineages persisted throughout, associated with both non-vaccine and vaccine types (such as ST199), or that could be an example of serotype switching from vaccine to non-vaccine types (ST177). Serotype 3 persisted throughout the study years, represented by ST180 and Global Pneumococcal Sequencing Cluster (GPSC) 12; the local PopPUNK analysis and core genome maximum likelihood phylogeny separated them into two clades, one of which is only seen in later study years. The genomic data showed that serotype replacement in the carriage studies was mostly due to a change in genotype as well as serotype, but that some important genetic lineages, previously associated with vaccine types, persisted

A simulation-based decision support tool for informing the management of patients with Parkinson’s disease

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in International Journal of Production Research, on 9 April 2015, available online via: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2015.1029647We describe a decision support toolkit that was developed with the aim of assisting those responsible with the management and treatment of Parkinson’s disease (PD) in the UK. Having created a baseline model and established its face validity, the toolkit captures the complexity of PD services at a sufficient level and operates within a user friendly environment, that is, an interface was built to allow users to specify their own local PD service and input their own estimates or data of service demands and capacities. The main strength of this decision support tool is the adoption of a team approach to studying the system, involving six PD specialist nurses across the country, ensuring that variety of views and suggestions are taken as well as systems modelling and simulations. The tool enables key decision makers to estimate the likely impact of changes, such as increased use of community services on activity, cost, staffing levels, skill-mix, and utilisation of resources. Such previously unobtainable quantitative information can be used to support business cases for changes in the increased use of community services and its impact on clinical outcomes (disease progression), nurse visits and costing.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Exhaled breath hydrogen cyanide as a marker of early Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in children with cystic fibrosis

Hydrogen cyanide is readily detected in the headspace above Pseudomonas aeruginosa cultures and in the breath of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients with chronic (P. aeruginosa) infection. We investigated if exhaled breath HCN is an early marker of P. aeruginosa infection. 233 children with CF who were free from P. aeruginosa infection were followed for 2 years. Their median (interquartile range) age was 8.0 (5.0–12.2) years. At each study visit, an exhaled breath sample was collected for hydrogen cyanide analysis. In total, 2055 breath samples were analysed. At the end of the study, the hydrogen cyanide concentrations were compared to the results of routine microbiology surveillance. P. aeruginosa was isolated from 71 children during the study with an incidence (95% CI) of 0.19 (0.15–0.23) cases per patient-year. Using a random-effects logistic model, the estimated odds ratio (95% CI) was 3.1 (2.6–3.6), which showed that for a 1- ppbv increase in exhaled breath hydrogen cyanide, we expected a 212% increase in the odds of P. aeruginosa infection. The sensitivity and specificity were estimated at 33% and 99%, respectively. Exhaled breath hydrogen cyanide is a specific biomarker of new P. aeruginosa infection in children with CF. Its low sensitivity means that at present, hydrogen cyanide cannot be used as a screening test for this infection